September 3rd 2025 2:44 pm

Written by Karl Collins

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Autumn Budget 2025 : Our Predictions

Late November Budget has tight fiscal headroom but Chancellor states no rises in VAT, NI or income tax for "working people".

The Autumn Budget 2025 will be delivered on Wednesday, 26 November 2025, by Chancellor, Rachel Reeves. The Budget is framed around a simple but demanding mission: make the economy work better for working people. The government's own framing emphasises "investment and reform" as the tools to achieve this as Reeves continues work on "fixing the foundations".

Why the date and timing of Budget 2025 matter

Budget days usually anchor more than a single speech; they set the timetable for a comprehensive economic package and the publication of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

That OBR document assesses the latest projections for growth, inflation, borrowing, and debt, and it tests whether the Chancellor's plans are consistent with the government's fiscal rules. Placing the Budget in late November gives the Treasury and OBR time to incorporate incoming economic data and for ministers to finalise complex policy choices.

How will inflation, rates, and markets affect Budget 2025

This Budget arrives amid a challenging environment. Inflation has fallen from its peaks, but borrowing costs have remained elevated by historical standards. Media and market coverage has repeatedly pointed to the sensitivity of gilt yields (long‑term government borrowing rates) to policy signals and economic news. Higher yields raise debt interest costs and reduce fiscal headroom. That in turn constrains choices: if you are aiming to adhere to fiscal rules (for example, to have debt on a declining path by a target year), you must calibrate tax and spending decisions carefully.

The Chancellor's recent messages underscore the emphasis on fiscal discipline to "bring down inflation and borrowing costs". In practice, this suggests the Budget is unlikely to feature broad‑based giveaways unless offset by credible revenue or spending measures.

Will Budget 2025 raise taxes?

The burning question! The government has reiterated pledges not to raise VAT, National Insurance, or income tax rates. However, this is underlined to apply only for "working people". So, this channels attention toward other parts of the tax system for rises, and to spending prioritisation.

Things being discussed include:

Is there going to be spending on infrastructure, planning, and public services?

There are several strands of policy focus this Budget:

These priorities point to a growth strategy rooted in productivity through efficiencies such as removal of red-tape. Faster planning equals more housing (which can improve labour mobility and affordability), and stronger infrastructure.

The Budget is likely to weave these strands together with targeted business policies, potentially investment allowances, sector‑specific incentives (including green/energy), and regulatory overhauls to ease bottlenecks.

How do the Economy Forecasts see it?

Debt interest costs remain high compared with the 2010s.

Underlying growth is modest in most forecasts, limiting revenue buoyancy.

Demands on public services (especially health and social care) continue to rise.

Defence and other priority commitments consume more of the spending envelope.

See more articles from September 2025

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